Something to keep in mind…

The world’s population is on track to hit 8 billion in 2023, and almost 10 billion by 2050.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report The 2018 special IPCC report came out Monday of this week. It warns that we have only 12 years to reduce carbon emissions before the global temperature will reach 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Below are a few articles on the IPCC report…

Climate change impacts worse than expected, global report warns
National Geographic October 7, 2018

The IPCC also reported that 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit could be reached in as little as 11 years—and almost certainly within 20 years without major cuts in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Even if such cuts were to begin immediately it would only delay, not prevent, 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit of global warming. … The scientific findings in the main report are summarized in a 34-page “Summary for Policy Makers,” which was approved by all representatives from 195 nations, including the U.S. … These solutions all require unprecedented efforts to cut fossil-fuel use in half in less than 15 years and eliminate their use almost entirely in 30 years.

IPCC Report Says 1.5C Climate Target Is Reachable, But Only With Rapid Fossil Fuel Phase Out
Desmog October 7,2018

There is no scenario to keep global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) that allows coal to be burned for electricity by the middle of this century, a major United Nations (UN) climate report says. … Within these scenarios, by 2030 coal use would need to drop between 25 percent and 60 percent compared to 2010. By 2050, coal use drops between 73 and 97 percent. … by 2050, renewables would need to generate between 70 and 85 percent of global electricity to meet a 1.5°C target. … if fossil fuel industries were to survive in a world aiming for 1.5°C, then “we will have 10 years to massively scale up workable carbon capture and storage.” … Current policies put us on course for a super-risky 3°C of warming.

Planet has only until 2030 to stem catastrophic climate change, experts warn
CNN October 8, 2018

The report issued Monday by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says the planet will reach the crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030, precipitating the risk of extreme drought, wildfires, floods and food shortages for hundreds of millions of people.

Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040
New York Times October 7, 2018

For instance, the report says that heavy taxes or prices on carbon dioxide emissions — perhaps as high as $27,000 per ton by 2100 — would be required. But such a move would be almost politically impossible in the United States… This report makes it clear: There is no way to mitigate climate change without getting rid of coal … the United States delegation joined more than 180 countries on Saturday in accepting the report’s summary … the United States intends to withdraw from the Paris agreement at the earliest opportunity … A price on carbon is central to prompt mitigation…

Reactions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report

What’s Not in the Latest Terrifying IPCC Report? The “Much, Much, Much More Terrifying” New Research on Climate Tipping Points
Common Dreams October 9, 2018

the “scariest thing about the IPCC Report” is the fact that “it’s the watered down, consensus version. The latest science is much, much, much more terrifying.” … it “fails to focus on the weakest link in the climate chain: the self-reinforcing feedbacks which, if allowed to continue, will accelerate warming and risk cascading climate tipping points and runaway warming.”

The Difficulties of Averting Catastrophic Climate Change
Seemorerocks October 9, 2018

It does seem to come full circle in terms of acknowledging the seriousness of the lower temperature thresholds at causing more catastrophic impacts to human and natural systems on Earth. …

[But,] The mitigation efforts of the IPCC continue to be based purely on human emissions and simply neglect too many things …

These include:

• Carbon emissions from land and permafrost (potentially massive) 

• Carbon emissions from wetlands

[The IPCC] Climate study ‘pulls punches’ to keep polluters on board
The Guardian Septermber 23, 2018

…scientists working on the final draft of the summary are censoring their own warnings and “pulling their punches” to make policy recommendations seem more palatable to countries – such as the US, Saudi Arabia and Australia – that are reluctant to cut fossil-fuel emissions, a key cause of global warming. “Downplaying the worst impacts of climate change has led the scientific authors to omit crucial information from the summary for policymakers,”

There is so much good information in this following article… h/t mhagle Response to the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report
Resilience October 9, 2018

To genuinely reduce emissions in line with 2°C of warming requires a transformation in the productive capacity of society, reminiscent of the Marshall Plan. The labour and resources used to furnish the high-carbon lifestyles of the top 20% will need to shift rapidly to deliver a fully decarbonised energy system.


General Climate Change News

This morning one of our fire marshals came by to check on the wildlife preserve behind our house. I asked him what he thought about global warming. Frowning he said fires are not the same as they used to be–Hotter, longer, crazier. He signed up for my bi-weekly newsletter. The story below is a breath-catching account of the recent Redding, CA wildfire…

Hellfire: This Is What Our Future Looks Like Under Climate Change
rsn October 10, 2018

Once restricted to weapons of mass destruction and exceptionally intense forest fires in remote settings, the tornado-sized firestorm is no longer as unlikely as it was in the 1970s. In 2014, another huge one was observed in dense forest, just 40 miles east of Redding. As the climate changes, fires no longer cool down at night as they once did; instead, they simply grow bigger and more powerful. Meanwhile, human settlement continues to push deeper into the forest where kilotons of unburned energy waits for any spark at all.

Not Just CO2: These Climate Pollutants Also Must Be Cut to Keep Global Warming to 1.5 Degrees
Inside Climate News October 7, 2018

That emphasis on reducing short-lived climate pollutants, which are many times more potent than CO2 but don’t last as long in the atmosphere, is stronger than what has been written into past international agreements. … “One of the lowest-hanging fruits by far would be reducing methane from oil and gas operations,” … “If you reduce things like black carbon emissions from the tailpipes of vehicles, for example, you are providing these important air quality improvement benefits which is going to help local populations as well,”

Kochs’ Americans for Prosperity Group Launches Campaign to Crush Fuel Economy Standards
Desmog October 9, 2018

Americans For Prosperity (AFP), a political advocacy network funded by the petrochemical billionaire Koch brothers, recently launched a campaign to support President Donald Trump’s efforts to roll back fuel efficiency and automobile emissions standards. Through social media feeds of the many AFP state chapters, the group is promoting a petition to “Repeal Costly Obama-era Fuel Standards.”

Paul Beckwith has two excellent videos on a no-arctic-sea-ice event…

Part one:

Part two:

Climate Adaption

What southern Africa needs to do to manage rising temperatures
Pys Org October 10, 2018

Southern Africa can do to try and arrest the region’s climate crisis in the areas of renewable energy and saving coral reefs but the outlook is not good… It seems inevitable that the planet will overshoot the 1.5°C global mark, and probably also the 2°C mark. …mass tree-planting – is a non-starter in most of southern Africa, where the arable land and water resources are needed for food production, and the marginal land is too dry to grow forests.
… Meeting the more stringent target would require spending an unprecedented amount of global financial resources on new energy, transport and urban systems over the next decade.

 World Bank dumps Kosovo plant, ending support for coal worldwide
Climate Change News October 10, 2018

“We are required by our by-laws to go with the lowest cost option and renewables have now come below the cost of coal. So without question, we are not going to [support the plant].” … But now another battle will probably begin, because we don’t know whether the government will continue searching for other investors to come and support the project.”

Maritime Industry Aims for Zero Emission Future
Green Optimistic October 9, 2018

A group of 34 maritime CEOs and industry leaders joined together to sign a call for action to lead the industry in support of a decarbonized future. The Non-Governmental Organization Global Maritime Forum bought the leaders together from various entities including, AP Moller-Maersk, Amsterdam Trade Bank, Caravel Group, University College London, Lloyd’s Register, Royal Artic Line, Rocky Mountain Institute, and Gaslog.

Nobel Prize in Economics 2018: Integrating innovation and climate with economic growth
Science Daily October 8, 2018

At its heart, economics deals with the management of scarce resources. Nature dictates the main constraints on economic growth and our knowledge determines how well we deal with these constraints. … [To create] a quantitative model that describes the global interplay between the economy and the climate. His model integrates theories and empirical results from physics, chemistry and economics. Nordhaus’ model is now widely spread and is used to simulate how the economy and the climate co-evolve. It is used to examine the consequences of climate policy interventions, for example carbon taxes.

Wildlife & the Environment

Global warming is pushing alpine animals to mountain peaks — and extinction, B.C. study warns
The Star October 9, 2018

Alpine animals are being pushed higher up their mountain habitats at an alarming rate due to global warming, according to a new B.C. study. The trend puts both plants and animals at greater risk for extinction because there is often less space at high altitudes, which can drastically reduce populations…

Long informative article that address wide-ranging but related issues… A forestry boom is turning Ireland into an ecological dead zone
The Guardian October 10, 2018

Sitka spruce plantations, hectare upon hectare of them, now cover what was once nature-rich farmland. Dense blocks of these non-native coniferous trees smother the landscape, driving out wonderful and endangered wildlife such as hen harriers and curlews, birds that could be extinct in Ireland within the decade.

Recent Climate Change Studies

Climate change efforts should focus on ocean-based solutions
Science Daily October 4, 2018

The study looks at the feasibility of 13 ocean-based measures to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), counteract ocean warming and/or reduce impacts like ocean acidification and sea-level rise. It identifies ocean-based renewable energy as the most promising, and several local marine conservation and restoration options as ‘no-regret measures’, that should be scaled-up and implemented immediately, but concludes all other measures are still too uncertain to recommend without further research.

Here are two excellent collections of articles that were used to inform the 1.5C target…

Collection: Targeting 1.5 °C
Nature October 4, 2018

This collection draws together content from Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience, Nature Communications, Nature Energy and Nature on the possibility of limiting climate warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

This is another collection of articles targeting carbon…

Collection: Carbon Accounting
Nature October 1, 2018

This collection brings together a selection of multi-disciplinary research and commentary from across the physical and social sciences that explores the major inputs and outputs that comprise the world’s carbon account.

Global Warnings

Paul Beckwith: “I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.”

Kevin Hester: “There is no past analogue for the rapidity of what we are baring witness to. There has been a flood of articles … 2C is no longer attainable and that we are heading for dangerous climate change”

Guy McPherson: “The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun.”

magi amma: We need to turn on a dime at mach nine!